Model DescriptionThe Canadian Emergency Response Model (CANERM) is a 3-dimensional numerical transport and dispersion model that calculates advection and diffusion, but also simulates wet and dry depositional processes. CANERM was initially designed to model the transport of radioactive contaminants in the atmosphere. However, it has been adapted for volcanic ash and is now used as an emergency forecast tool for predicting the movement of volcanic ash clouds that may threaten Canadian air space.
CANERM is a fully operational model at the Montreal Volcanic Ash
Advisory Center (VAAC) which operates as part of the Canadian Meteorological
Center (CMC). Daily forecasts are produced for active or potentially active volcanoes and are ready to be administered to proper
aviation weather forecasting authorities if needed. The model can also be executed by the on-duty meteorologist at the CMC on a
24-hour basis. A simulation can be produced for any volcano in the world.
The CANERM model also requires the input of the following: latitude and longitude of the volcano, time and date
of the eruption, duration of the eruption, ash release time function (constant, exponential, or gaussian), the
amount of ash erupted, and the plume height. Since detailed information about eruption characteristics is often
not available, accepted default values for ash volume, eruption duration, and release function are used to initially
run the model until information is updated.
Automatic forecast simulations are run daily (real-time) for volcanoes exhibiting immediate potential for eruption and consequent ash cloud production. CANERM is also a tool for studying past eruptions, especially as more accurate data becomes available for model input. CANERM results can be compared to satellite observations and other ash transport models for validation purposes. Below are some examples of past eruption simulations.
Rabaul, New Guinea
Another option of the CANERM model is trajectory output. Forecast trajectories are produced daily (real-time) for selected volcanoes. Below is an example for Colima, Mexico.
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