PREDICTION OF HURRICAINES AND ADVISORIES

Hurricane Forcasting and Predictions

Hurricanes are located by satlites and tracked by radar when they approach land. The main hurricane data is gathered by recommaissance aircraft. The Hurricane Hunters baised at Keesler Air Force Base are one of the few agencies that gather information on hurricanes. They fly through the hurricane several times gathering data on wind speed, pressure, temperature, dew point, and exact location. This information is then sent to the National Hurricane Center Tropical Prediction Center for analysis.

A hurricanes path is plotted by the National Hurricane Center using statistical and dynamic models. The statistical model compares the form of the hurricane to the historical records of similar hurricanes in the past. From these records, it assumes that the hurricane will act the same. The hurricane records for the Atlantic extend to the 1871 season. The dynamic model uses mathematical calculations baised on the data gathered by the hurricane hunters to predict the hurricanes path. The information used to issure warnings and watches are a combination of both methods, giving the highest possible accuracy. They also use these models to try to predict storm surges and storm tides.

Advisories

In the event of a hurricane, watches and warnings are issued over the NOAA Weather Radio Network as well as TV and radio.

A hurricane WATCH is issued approximatly 36 hours in advance for a specific area. A watch indicates that the conditions surrounding the hurricane create the possibility for a strike in your area.

A hurricane WARNING is issued within 24 hours of an expected strike to an area. At this time evacuations are also announced.

Places to go for more information on Prediction and Forcasting